1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:09,720 [Music] 2 00:00:14,619 --> 00:00:12,160 first of all I'd like to thank Tom 3 00:00:18,130 --> 00:00:14,629 Dykstra for inviting me it is really an 4 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:18,140 honor to be here and yesterday dr. 5 00:00:26,080 --> 00:00:22,610 O'Leary spoke briefly about being out of 6 00:00:30,249 --> 00:00:26,090 the box I'd like to think it a bit more 7 00:00:32,679 --> 00:00:30,259 as multi-dimensional thinking you have a 8 00:00:35,410 --> 00:00:32,689 tunnel and we have all the information 9 00:00:39,389 --> 00:00:35,420 around the tunnel so we gathered the 10 00:00:41,860 --> 00:00:39,399 information to solve a problem and 11 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:41,870 that's what we're gonna do here this 12 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:50,690 morning during the winters 2009 through 13 00:00:57,790 --> 00:00:54,170 about 2011 all kinds of snowfall records 14 00:01:01,650 --> 00:00:57,800 broken across the United States this 15 00:01:03,999 --> 00:01:01,660 past winter records broken in Alaska 16 00:01:09,539 --> 00:01:04,009 Russia record cold 17 00:01:13,389 --> 00:01:09,549 meanwhile United States very very warm 18 00:01:18,399 --> 00:01:13,399 global warming is real it's definitely 19 00:01:20,859 --> 00:01:18,409 real what we have is a fight between two 20 00:01:23,289 --> 00:01:20,869 systems global cooling and global 21 00:01:25,870 --> 00:01:23,299 warming just like in the spring when we 22 00:01:27,489 --> 00:01:25,880 have tornadoes a fight between winter 23 00:01:29,889 --> 00:01:27,499 weather and summer weather which ones 24 00:01:31,870 --> 00:01:29,899 are going to take over and we're having 25 00:01:33,910 --> 00:01:31,880 a fight on that now we've had global 26 00:01:40,539 --> 00:01:33,920 warming now which one's going to take 27 00:01:42,219 --> 00:01:40,549 over this graphic from 1870 up to 28 00:01:45,010 --> 00:01:42,229 present time showing the increase of 29 00:01:47,949 --> 00:01:45,020 carbon dioxide it's no question about it 30 00:01:51,609 --> 00:01:47,959 it's increased from about 260 70 parts 31 00:01:56,849 --> 00:01:51,619 per million back in 1870 up to about 395 32 00:02:00,279 --> 00:01:56,859 parts per million now this is a graphic 33 00:02:03,099 --> 00:02:00,289 the United States temperatures from 1880 34 00:02:06,669 --> 00:02:03,109 to present time this is the present time 35 00:02:08,830 --> 00:02:06,679 right here and the arch line the O line 36 00:02:15,210 --> 00:02:08,840 notes the increase in carbon dioxide 37 00:02:20,020 --> 00:02:15,220 during this 110 20 year period from 1880 38 00:02:21,670 --> 00:02:20,030 to 1930 you can see kind of ten-year ups 39 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:21,680 and downs in the temperature but overall 40 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:22,770 temperature 41 00:02:29,300 --> 00:02:25,410 the same then we had a ten-year spike in 42 00:02:32,930 --> 00:02:29,310 the temperatures been a 50-year downturn 43 00:02:35,330 --> 00:02:32,940 and now we just had a ten-year spike 44 00:02:37,790 --> 00:02:35,340 again in temperatures this is the 45 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:37,800 typical global warming cycle two 46 00:02:42,020 --> 00:02:40,290 ten-year peaks and temperatures with 47 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:42,030 about 50 years of cooler weather in 48 00:02:49,610 --> 00:02:45,810 between and no the relationship at all 49 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:49,620 to increase in carbon dioxide carbon 50 00:02:55,660 --> 00:02:52,730 dioxide is a byproduct of global warming 51 00:03:00,140 --> 00:02:55,670 again this is a graphic 52 00:03:01,780 --> 00:03:00,150 this is batoul 10-year peaks but I just 53 00:03:04,670 --> 00:03:01,790 showed you 54 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:04,680 global warming comes about every 230 55 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:11,810 years this is back in the 1800's 1500s 56 00:03:20,780 --> 00:03:17,370 1300s 1100 and back around 8 900 AD they 57 00:03:26,750 --> 00:03:20,790 all have a signature of between ten 58 00:03:28,310 --> 00:03:26,760 years spikes and temperature well us 59 00:03:30,830 --> 00:03:28,320 humans we need an afternoon nap 60 00:03:33,980 --> 00:03:30,840 sometimes to get us through rest of a 61 00:03:36,050 --> 00:03:33,990 day we get a little sluggish and this is 62 00:03:37,550 --> 00:03:36,060 what happens in the global warming 63 00:03:39,770 --> 00:03:37,560 cooling cycles become every two hundred 64 00:03:41,930 --> 00:03:39,780 and thirty years during global cooling 65 00:03:44,570 --> 00:03:41,940 cycle earth needs a little nap to 66 00:03:46,610 --> 00:03:44,580 regenerate during the longer cycles 67 00:03:50,330 --> 00:03:46,620 become every hundred and twenty thousand 68 00:03:54,260 --> 00:03:50,340 years earth needs a longer nap to 69 00:03:57,140 --> 00:03:54,270 regenerate what we have are about 30 40 70 00:03:59,840 --> 00:03:57,150 thousand years of a glacial period to 71 00:04:03,230 --> 00:03:59,850 give the earth a good long rest and then 72 00:04:09,070 --> 00:04:03,240 the warm dynamic periods such as what 73 00:04:12,770 --> 00:04:09,080 we're in right now peeking out back in 74 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:12,780 May of last year a year ago there's a 75 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:15,090 person that said Oh world's coming to an 76 00:04:18,349 --> 00:04:16,130 end 77 00:04:20,090 --> 00:04:18,359 meanwhile over in right we had people 78 00:04:21,289 --> 00:04:20,100 talking about global warming earth is 79 00:04:25,180 --> 00:04:21,299 coming to an end if we don't do 80 00:04:28,820 --> 00:04:25,190 something well science said in the 1400s 81 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:28,830 world is flat we know what happened 82 00:04:34,869 --> 00:04:32,930 there 1970s earth is enduring ice age 83 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:34,879 that didn't happen 84 00:04:39,950 --> 00:04:37,650 two thousand four and five after the big 85 00:04:41,990 --> 00:04:39,960 hurricanes in Florida and through Abba 86 00:04:45,230 --> 00:04:42,000 genic manmade global warming it's 87 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:45,240 causing stronger hurricanes I researched 88 00:04:50,029 --> 00:04:47,970 the cycles National Hurricane Center 89 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:50,039 research for cycles it's not true 90 00:04:57,260 --> 00:04:52,650 we had just as strong hurricanes in the 91 00:04:59,059 --> 00:04:57,270 past 2004 to present people saying 92 00:05:01,879 --> 00:04:59,069 Mississippi River flood last year was 93 00:05:04,790 --> 00:05:01,889 caused by global warming and tornadoes 94 00:05:08,450 --> 00:05:04,800 last year I've researched this I track 95 00:05:11,300 --> 00:05:08,460 him on my model this is all cyclical and 96 00:05:13,969 --> 00:05:11,310 now 1990s to present global warming 97 00:05:19,990 --> 00:05:13,979 caused by ban rest abyss wasn't right 98 00:05:23,330 --> 00:05:20,000 what do we think about this since 1995 99 00:05:26,719 --> 00:05:23,340 we've had manipulation by the University 100 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:26,729 grant system grants to universities were 101 00:05:32,330 --> 00:05:30,330 only granted to study man's connection 102 00:05:34,700 --> 00:05:32,340 to global warming you couldn't get a 103 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:34,710 research grant in Europe United States 104 00:05:41,059 --> 00:05:38,330 to study natural cycles because of this 105 00:05:44,719 --> 00:05:41,069 the journals anything printed in the 106 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:44,729 journals was due was a be man-made 107 00:05:49,430 --> 00:05:47,849 global warming so when it was printed 108 00:05:51,620 --> 00:05:49,440 majeure NAL's to media to get a hold of 109 00:05:55,309 --> 00:05:51,630 that information this is what we'd saved 110 00:05:57,110 --> 00:05:55,319 media may and made global warming so the 111 00:05:58,969 --> 00:05:57,120 media would hype it up that would hype 112 00:06:00,939 --> 00:05:58,979 up the government the government would 113 00:06:05,260 --> 00:06:00,949 put out more grants they're all hyped up 114 00:06:07,939 --> 00:06:05,270 now it was a poll about a year ago that 115 00:06:09,860 --> 00:06:07,949 ninety percent of the grant scientists 116 00:06:11,890 --> 00:06:09,870 once receiving grants for studies 117 00:06:14,029 --> 00:06:11,900 believe in man-made global warming 118 00:06:15,950 --> 00:06:14,039 eighty five percent of the general 119 00:06:20,390 --> 00:06:15,960 meteorologists and climatologists say 120 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:20,400 it's mostly natural cycles meanwhile 121 00:06:24,439 --> 00:06:21,810 this trickles down to the energy 122 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:24,449 community where they have to become 123 00:06:35,719 --> 00:06:29,370 politically correct let's take a look at 124 00:06:37,670 --> 00:06:35,729 the Earth's atmospheric gases 99% of the 125 00:06:42,439 --> 00:06:37,680 atmospheric gases are made up of 126 00:06:46,610 --> 00:06:42,449 nitrogen oxygen and argon leaves 1% for 127 00:06:49,460 --> 00:06:46,620 the greenhouse gas of the 1% almost the 128 00:06:52,710 --> 00:06:49,470 entire 1% is water vapor 129 00:06:55,130 --> 00:06:52,720 carbon dioxide you can't even see it uh 130 00:07:00,480 --> 00:06:55,140 my graphic so let's blow it up 131 00:07:03,180 --> 00:07:00,490 here we are greenhouse gases 96% carbon 132 00:07:04,590 --> 00:07:03,190 dioxide varies between we'll go to parts 133 00:07:06,930 --> 00:07:04,600 per million on its hood some bigger 134 00:07:09,510 --> 00:07:06,940 numbers goes between hundred and sixty 135 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:09,520 parts per million to 400 parts per 136 00:07:19,020 --> 00:07:12,010 million compared to 10,000 parts per 137 00:07:22,830 --> 00:07:19,030 million for water vapour down water 138 00:07:24,540 --> 00:07:22,840 vapour as I said it varies between 160 139 00:07:28,170 --> 00:07:24,550 up to about 400 parts per million 140 00:07:30,060 --> 00:07:28,180 scientists say we've never been above 141 00:07:32,460 --> 00:07:30,070 300 parts per million over the past 142 00:07:37,020 --> 00:07:32,470 couple million years I'm going to show 143 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:37,030 you that were frequently up to 334 parts 144 00:07:47,580 --> 00:07:40,210 per million and even up to close to 400 145 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:47,590 parts per million now is the higher 146 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:51,970 levels harmful greenhouses they keep 147 00:07:57,570 --> 00:07:54,490 their carbon dioxide between 500 to 148 00:08:03,800 --> 00:07:57,580 1,000 parts per million beneficial for 149 00:08:07,230 --> 00:08:03,810 plant growth when the dinosaurs roamed 150 00:08:11,340 --> 00:08:07,240 carbon dioxide levels were 1000 to 1500 151 00:08:15,060 --> 00:08:11,350 parts per million plants and animals big 152 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:15,070 and robust oxygen back then was 31% 153 00:08:25,620 --> 00:08:21,130 we're down to 21% now 21% that's because 154 00:08:27,770 --> 00:08:25,630 of the lack of the carbon dioxide so 155 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:27,780 where does carbon dioxide come from 156 00:08:34,650 --> 00:08:32,290 carbon dioxide cycle in the bottom of 157 00:08:36,660 --> 00:08:34,660 picture it's from dead organisms fossils 158 00:08:40,560 --> 00:08:36,670 fossil fuels decaying plants root 159 00:08:43,170 --> 00:08:40,570 respiration animal respiration that all 160 00:08:45,810 --> 00:08:43,180 goes up into the atmosphere and even the 161 00:08:47,750 --> 00:08:45,820 oceans will either take it in or put it 162 00:08:51,420 --> 00:08:47,760 out over on the left you have a tree 163 00:08:55,350 --> 00:08:51,430 trees take in carbon dioxide to balance 164 00:08:57,180 --> 00:08:55,360 it off but if it was only that simple we 165 00:08:58,590 --> 00:08:57,190 have to deal with interglacial warm 166 00:09:00,210 --> 00:08:58,600 periods every hundred and sixteen 167 00:09:01,740 --> 00:09:00,220 thousand years but caused a change 168 00:09:02,220 --> 00:09:01,750 global warming cycles every two hundred 169 00:09:04,830 --> 00:09:02,230 and three 170 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:04,840 years and changes in seasons winter to 171 00:09:13,490 --> 00:09:06,970 summer they all have changes in carbon 172 00:09:16,140 --> 00:09:13,500 dioxide just 15,000 years ago up over 173 00:09:19,110 --> 00:09:16,150 New England from almost New York City 174 00:09:23,340 --> 00:09:19,120 Northwood it was in that glacial period 175 00:09:27,660 --> 00:09:23,350 mile thick ice year-round up in New 176 00:09:29,330 --> 00:09:27,670 England still and of course because of 177 00:09:32,250 --> 00:09:29,340 that you didn't have any bare ground 178 00:09:34,680 --> 00:09:32,260 from there North wood so you didn't have 179 00:09:38,430 --> 00:09:34,690 a natural feedback of carbon dioxide 180 00:09:40,070 --> 00:09:38,440 into the atmosphere then the glacial 181 00:09:42,660 --> 00:09:40,080 period went away 182 00:09:47,100 --> 00:09:42,670 well this is what it does to the carbon 183 00:09:48,930 --> 00:09:47,110 dioxide cycle you get the ice age all 184 00:09:52,620 --> 00:09:48,940 your feedback and carbon dioxide goes 185 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:52,630 away you have a big negative loss in the 186 00:09:58,890 --> 00:09:56,290 atmosphere colder oceans absorb the 187 00:10:00,420 --> 00:09:58,900 carbon dioxide stored up for 30 40 188 00:10:02,670 --> 00:10:00,430 thousand years waiting for the next 189 00:10:08,220 --> 00:10:02,680 interglacial period that comes every 120 190 00:10:12,330 --> 00:10:08,230 thousand years photosynthesis drops by 191 00:10:17,100 --> 00:10:12,340 50 to 75 percent when the ice age goes 192 00:10:19,380 --> 00:10:17,110 away all the feedback comes back the 193 00:10:21,510 --> 00:10:19,390 oceans dump all that carbon dioxide back 194 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:21,520 to the atmosphere over a matter of only 195 00:10:26,270 --> 00:10:24,370 about 10,000 years so we have a huge 196 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:26,280 increase in the atmosphere 197 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:37,340 and this is what it looks like in a 198 00:10:41,660 --> 00:10:39,410 long-term and the left 199 00:10:42,890 --> 00:10:41,670 Redis temperature this is back four 200 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:42,900 hundred and thirty thousand years ago 201 00:10:48,590 --> 00:10:46,050 blue is carbon dioxide every hundred and 202 00:10:50,390 --> 00:10:48,600 twenty thousand years we heavy into the 203 00:10:55,220 --> 00:10:50,400 interglacial peak and temperature in 204 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:55,230 carbon dioxide and during the past forty 205 00:10:59,180 --> 00:10:56,970 fifty thousand years missiles are a very 206 00:11:06,260 --> 00:10:59,190 deep glacial period that we just came 207 00:11:09,110 --> 00:11:06,270 out of how can we get past history to 208 00:11:09,580 --> 00:11:09,120 produce a map graphic that I just showed 209 00:11:12,590 --> 00:11:09,590 you 210 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:12,600 well my grandchildren say I'm Santa 211 00:11:14,570 --> 00:11:12,810 Claus 212 00:11:16,850 --> 00:11:14,580 so of course I'm in my backyard my 213 00:11:19,940 --> 00:11:16,860 thermometer and I'm taken to records 214 00:11:23,300 --> 00:11:19,950 pass half million years or we can go 215 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:23,310 down to the Antarctica what we have here 216 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:26,370 is a block of ice in the ice 217 00:11:32,780 --> 00:11:29,490 you see air bubbles in the air bubbles 218 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:32,790 is trapped atmosphere so if we can find 219 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:35,850 some old ice extract the old atmosphere 220 00:11:39,650 --> 00:11:37,410 we can determine how much carbon dioxide 221 00:11:42,710 --> 00:11:39,660 there was in the air at a given time in 222 00:11:48,070 --> 00:11:42,720 history so the Russians went down to the 223 00:11:51,230 --> 00:11:48,080 Antarctica so a glacial lake vostok very 224 00:11:55,070 --> 00:11:51,240 thick ice water down and bottom of a 225 00:11:58,280 --> 00:11:55,080 lake they drilled down about 13,000 feet 226 00:12:00,530 --> 00:11:58,290 that's a lot of ice that is called old 227 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:00,540 ice ice at the bottom four hundred and 228 00:12:06,590 --> 00:12:03,450 thirty thousand years old up at the top 229 00:12:09,470 --> 00:12:06,600 the first seven thousand years of the 230 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:09,480 ice core is called new ice you cannot 231 00:12:14,210 --> 00:12:12,330 use the new ice because it takes five to 232 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:14,220 six seven thousand years for the air 233 00:12:19,970 --> 00:12:16,770 bubbles to become permanently locked in 234 00:12:24,260 --> 00:12:19,980 the ice up until that time it moves 235 00:12:29,270 --> 00:12:24,270 around in the ice so you can't use new 236 00:12:32,030 --> 00:12:29,280 ice that's when an ice core it looks 237 00:12:35,980 --> 00:12:32,040 like they take off the piece of ice to 238 00:12:42,020 --> 00:12:35,990 analyze it and missus by graphic we get 239 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:42,030 on the Left 338 thousand years ago took 240 00:12:48,230 --> 00:12:45,330 50 global warming cycles over course at 241 00:12:49,010 --> 00:12:48,240 ten thousand years to peak out Eagle 242 00:12:51,340 --> 00:12:49,020 warming cycle 243 00:12:55,010 --> 00:12:51,350 got warmer and warmer carbon dioxide 244 00:12:57,050 --> 00:12:55,020 increases however science is found 245 00:13:00,140 --> 00:12:57,060 there's a lag in the increase of carbon 246 00:13:04,460 --> 00:13:00,150 dioxide by 200 to 800 years temperature 247 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:04,470 goes up first not carbon dioxide when it 248 00:13:10,910 --> 00:13:08,370 Peaks out the peak of 298 parts per 249 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:10,920 million for carbon dioxide was several 250 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:13,650 thousand years after the peak of the 251 00:13:20,570 --> 00:13:17,850 temperatures and then you can see the 252 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:20,580 temperatures falling like a rock for 253 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:22,290 several thousand years but carbon 254 00:13:28,700 --> 00:13:25,650 dioxide remaining high if carbon dioxide 255 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:28,710 causes temperatures to rise we would 256 00:13:33,650 --> 00:13:30,930 have had global runaway global warming 257 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:33,660 back at that time temperatures could not 258 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:36,810 have fallen and the carbon dioxide 259 00:13:43,580 --> 00:13:39,330 levels were higher than 298 parts per 260 00:13:45,650 --> 00:13:43,590 million the plot is about a 200 to 1000 261 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:45,660 year mean and you know when you take a 262 00:13:51,380 --> 00:13:49,650 mean you have spikes way above it and 263 00:13:54,170 --> 00:13:51,390 this is why they say we've never been 264 00:13:56,690 --> 00:13:54,180 above 300 parts per million because it's 265 00:14:02,030 --> 00:13:56,700 a mean value over two hundred to a 266 00:14:04,550 --> 00:14:02,040 thousand years the next cycle took 30 267 00:14:06,860 --> 00:14:04,560 global warming cycles there is 50 268 00:14:10,310 --> 00:14:06,870 there's 30 global warming cycles next 269 00:14:13,940 --> 00:14:10,320 one took 41 where now there's only 20 270 00:14:16,820 --> 00:14:13,950 global warming cycles up until about 271 00:14:19,790 --> 00:14:16,830 eight thousand years ago when we had two 272 00:14:22,730 --> 00:14:19,800 hundred and sixty parts per million but 273 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:22,740 we do know that the temperatures were 274 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:24,570 very high at that time that was the peak 275 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:26,850 of our interglacial period for 276 00:14:31,220 --> 00:14:29,610 temperatures because seven thousand 277 00:14:35,330 --> 00:14:31,230 years ago there was fifty percent less 278 00:14:40,190 --> 00:14:35,340 ice in the Arctic that marries today 50 279 00:14:42,290 --> 00:14:40,200 percent less but as you can see we're 280 00:14:44,270 --> 00:14:42,300 have been missing carbon dioxide here 281 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:44,280 because it's pasado seven thousand year 282 00:14:48,620 --> 00:14:46,890 period where we cannot acquire the 283 00:14:53,060 --> 00:14:48,630 carbon dioxide from the ice core 284 00:14:56,210 --> 00:14:53,070 so let's acquire it ourselves we're 285 00:15:00,130 --> 00:14:56,220 going to take the liquid cycles again 286 00:15:03,319 --> 00:15:00,140 and what we want to do is look to see 287 00:15:05,540 --> 00:15:03,329 how much the carbon dioxide 288 00:15:09,650 --> 00:15:05,550 during the last four thousand years of a 289 00:15:12,259 --> 00:15:09,660 cycle the first cycle back three hundred 290 00:15:15,980 --> 00:15:12,269 thirty-eight thousand years ago it rolls 291 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:15,990 57 parts per million the next cycle it 292 00:15:22,309 --> 00:15:18,930 went up 50 parts per million the next 293 00:15:27,290 --> 00:15:22,319 cycle sixty seven parts per million then 294 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:27,300 let's take a mean of that the mean of 295 00:15:33,710 --> 00:15:32,370 the rises are 58 well back seven 296 00:15:35,180 --> 00:15:33,720 thousand years ago we were two hundred 297 00:15:37,249 --> 00:15:35,190 and sixty parts per million but we had a 298 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:37,259 twenty more global warming cycles to go 299 00:15:41,449 --> 00:15:40,170 yet so let's add that mean to it comes 300 00:15:43,340 --> 00:15:41,459 up to three hundred and eighteen parts 301 00:15:45,620 --> 00:15:43,350 per million that's what our mean value 302 00:15:47,689 --> 00:15:45,630 should be right now above 300 parts per 303 00:15:49,129 --> 00:15:47,699 million now the scientists would say 304 00:15:51,319 --> 00:15:49,139 yeah but we're up to three hundred and 305 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:51,329 seventy parts per billion on the ground 306 00:15:56,930 --> 00:15:53,970 surface down at Lake Vostok way up high 307 00:16:00,290 --> 00:15:56,940 but that's an instantaneous reading from 308 00:16:05,150 --> 00:16:00,300 an instrument not a mean they don't tell 309 00:16:06,980 --> 00:16:05,160 you that it's a instantaneous reading so 310 00:16:08,900 --> 00:16:06,990 we won't take a thousand-year mean here 311 00:16:14,090 --> 00:16:08,910 what we'll do is take a 100-year mean 312 00:16:15,829 --> 00:16:14,100 what the carbon dioxide was a hundred 313 00:16:19,009 --> 00:16:15,839 years ago one hundred and twenty years 314 00:16:20,569 --> 00:16:19,019 ago and will mean that in and it brings 315 00:16:23,030 --> 00:16:20,579 it down to a three hundred and fifteen 316 00:16:26,210 --> 00:16:23,040 parts per million for mean just like my 317 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:26,220 318 we're exactly where were supposed to 318 00:16:34,309 --> 00:16:28,410 be for carbon dioxide there's nothing 319 00:16:37,129 --> 00:16:34,319 wrong it's a natural cycle now this is a 320 00:16:39,439 --> 00:16:37,139 graphics created by Peter tans who will 321 00:16:42,949 --> 00:16:39,449 be speaking after me called the carbon 322 00:16:44,660 --> 00:16:42,959 tracker carbon dioxide satellite 323 00:16:48,319 --> 00:16:44,670 information in the troposphere of the 324 00:16:51,889 --> 00:16:48,329 atmosphere this is at the end of winter 325 00:16:54,769 --> 00:16:51,899 in 2009 red is showing very high levels 326 00:16:57,829 --> 00:16:54,779 of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 393 327 00:17:02,540 --> 00:16:57,839 parts of a million very high only six 328 00:17:07,149 --> 00:17:02,550 months later it drops 15 parts per 329 00:17:09,289 --> 00:17:07,159 million in six months breeze and Wayas 330 00:17:11,870 --> 00:17:09,299 during winter you have a lack of 331 00:17:13,610 --> 00:17:11,880 photosynthesis the plants are not taking 332 00:17:16,370 --> 00:17:13,620 carbon dioxide out of the air so it's 333 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:16,380 building up in the air at the end of 334 00:17:19,429 --> 00:17:16,890 summer 335 00:17:21,590 --> 00:17:19,439 the plants had extracted carbon dioxide 336 00:17:24,199 --> 00:17:21,600 from the air so you've dropped 15 parts 337 00:17:25,910 --> 00:17:24,209 per million now if you could drop 15 338 00:17:27,049 --> 00:17:25,920 parts per million in just six months 339 00:17:35,390 --> 00:17:27,059 what do you think it can do in a hundred 340 00:17:40,100 --> 00:17:35,400 years photosynthesis okay this is a 341 00:17:43,130 --> 00:17:40,110 study done by dr. Beck this is a leaf 342 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:43,140 plant leaflet in belief you have little 343 00:17:47,780 --> 00:17:45,330 cells called stomata it's like our lungs 344 00:17:50,330 --> 00:17:47,790 excuse me it's like our lungs little 345 00:17:52,159 --> 00:17:50,340 stomata cells they found an inverse 346 00:17:54,049 --> 00:17:52,169 proportion if you have more stomata 347 00:17:56,150 --> 00:17:54,059 cells you have the less carbon dioxide 348 00:17:58,340 --> 00:17:56,160 at vice versa if you have the less 349 00:18:01,580 --> 00:17:58,350 stomata cells you have more carbon 350 00:18:04,310 --> 00:18:01,590 dioxide and the beauty of this is leaf 351 00:18:05,780 --> 00:18:04,320 Li lives one year so instead of a 352 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:05,790 thousand year mean you can get a one 353 00:18:14,409 --> 00:18:10,890 year reading and this is what he came up 354 00:18:17,150 --> 00:18:14,419 with down at the bottom 355 00:18:18,970 --> 00:18:17,160 that's what five global warming cycles 356 00:18:21,169 --> 00:18:18,980 during the past twelve hundred years 357 00:18:22,630 --> 00:18:21,179 first global warming cycle back around 358 00:18:25,460 --> 00:18:22,640 900 AD 359 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:25,470 plants Amadas show but we're up at 400 360 00:18:30,890 --> 00:18:27,330 parts per million way back twelve 361 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:30,900 hundred years ago then of course of only 362 00:18:33,950 --> 00:18:32,250 about fifty seventy-five years he 363 00:18:36,140 --> 00:18:33,960 dropped down to 250 parts per million 364 00:18:38,630 --> 00:18:36,150 during global cooling next global 365 00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:38,640 warming cycle peaked out again Dex Coble 366 00:18:44,650 --> 00:18:41,370 warming cycle next global warming cycle 367 00:18:48,289 --> 00:18:44,660 next global warming cycle and then in 368 00:18:50,539 --> 00:18:48,299 1860 1870 Instruments said we were at 369 00:18:53,510 --> 00:18:50,549 260 parts per million plants stomata 370 00:18:55,970 --> 00:18:53,520 said 260 yet parts per million ice cores 371 00:19:03,020 --> 00:18:55,980 said three 260 parts per million all 372 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:03,030 agreed and then now 375 to 395 parts per 373 00:19:08,810 --> 00:19:05,970 million they all agree again so plant 374 00:19:10,700 --> 00:19:08,820 stomata can be used over time and beauty 375 00:19:13,850 --> 00:19:10,710 of it is it goes with the global warming 376 00:19:16,700 --> 00:19:13,860 cycles but 1,000 year mean of a plant 377 00:19:20,330 --> 00:19:16,710 stomata is about 305 parts per million 378 00:19:23,120 --> 00:19:20,340 just like our a thousand year mean it's 379 00:19:27,650 --> 00:19:23,130 exactly what we're seeing happen we have 380 00:19:29,850 --> 00:19:27,660 rapid changes in just 75 years this is 381 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:29,860 my favorite favorite part now 382 00:19:39,450 --> 00:19:36,850 Earth's climate pulse the cause the 383 00:19:43,710 --> 00:19:39,460 orbit of the earth elliptical around the 384 00:19:45,900 --> 00:19:43,720 Sun every 120,000 years the Sun the Moon 385 00:19:49,230 --> 00:19:45,910 moves out further from the Sun causes 386 00:19:53,010 --> 00:19:49,240 the 120,000 year glacial period then it 387 00:19:55,620 --> 00:19:53,020 comes in swings in close the 120 388 00:19:58,530 --> 00:19:55,630 thousand year warm period that we're in 389 00:20:01,080 --> 00:19:58,540 now this is V Milankovitch cycles very 390 00:20:04,049 --> 00:20:01,090 famous cycles very well known in science 391 00:20:06,330 --> 00:20:04,059 what I inject into it is B lunar solar 392 00:20:09,870 --> 00:20:06,340 precession I add the gravitational 393 00:20:11,730 --> 00:20:09,880 cycles of the moon and the Sun if it was 394 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:11,740 not for the gravitational tidal forces 395 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:13,450 of the Moon and Sun the earth would spin 396 00:20:20,159 --> 00:20:16,330 out of control and what we're going to 397 00:20:23,220 --> 00:20:20,169 look at is for gravitational cycles and 398 00:20:28,380 --> 00:20:23,230 especially benign year 72 year and 230 399 00:20:31,500 --> 00:20:28,390 year cycles elliptical paths orbit of 400 00:20:34,289 --> 00:20:31,510 the moon around the earth every six 401 00:20:36,390 --> 00:20:34,299 months swings in close to the earth this 402 00:20:40,370 --> 00:20:36,400 is a perigee proxy G and in alignment 403 00:20:42,990 --> 00:20:40,380 with the Sun perigee proxy G syzygy 404 00:20:47,190 --> 00:20:43,000 gravitational tidal force on the earth 405 00:20:49,470 --> 00:20:47,200 increases up to 47% that's a huge 406 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:49,480 increase 47% so you would expect 407 00:20:57,120 --> 00:20:54,010 something to happen and also bits a 408 00:20:58,770 --> 00:20:57,130 position of a moon in the sky that's 409 00:21:00,900 --> 00:20:58,780 strong six months cycle I'm talking 410 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:00,910 about it'll start out in the northern 411 00:21:06,750 --> 00:21:04,450 hemisphere up around 20 28 degrees over 412 00:21:09,060 --> 00:21:06,760 the course of time takes four years to 413 00:21:11,430 --> 00:21:09,070 go down to southern hemisphere then back 414 00:21:13,950 --> 00:21:11,440 to northern hemisphere that's a nine 415 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:13,960 year cycle from a north back to the 416 00:21:19,580 --> 00:21:15,850 north nine year cycle of the 417 00:21:23,460 --> 00:21:19,590 gravitational cycle what this does 418 00:21:27,360 --> 00:21:23,470 between the new moon and full moon great 419 00:21:30,030 --> 00:21:27,370 torque on the Earth causing plunger 420 00:21:32,100 --> 00:21:30,040 effect gravitational pull on the oceans 421 00:21:37,169 --> 00:21:32,110 atmosphere and in the core outer core of 422 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:37,179 the earth this is what the cycle looks 423 00:21:43,830 --> 00:21:40,210 like but nine year cycles this is actual 424 00:21:44,970 --> 00:21:43,840 cycles 1990 the northern hemisphere 425 00:21:47,940 --> 00:21:44,980 high in the sky in northern hemisphere 426 00:21:49,289 --> 00:21:47,950 nine years later goes from it down to 427 00:21:51,570 --> 00:21:49,299 the southern hemisphere back to northern 428 00:21:56,340 --> 00:21:51,580 hemisphere and northern hemisphere nine 429 00:21:57,380 --> 00:21:56,350 year cycles you probably recall I showed 430 00:21:59,399 --> 00:21:57,390 you this earlier 431 00:22:03,269 --> 00:21:59,409 temperatures in the United States since 432 00:22:05,940 --> 00:22:03,279 1880 and I was talking about a ten-year 433 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:05,950 blip in temperatures well let's put it 434 00:22:15,269 --> 00:22:09,730 in there nine to ten year blips just 435 00:22:16,620 --> 00:22:15,279 like the nine year cycle now this is 436 00:22:18,510 --> 00:22:16,630 some information that came out in 437 00:22:24,149 --> 00:22:18,520 American Meteorological Society bulletin 438 00:22:26,279 --> 00:22:24,159 of last year not my research it was the 439 00:22:29,310 --> 00:22:26,289 North Atlantic what happens every so 440 00:22:34,110 --> 00:22:29,320 often is a pool of warm water pulses 441 00:22:38,039 --> 00:22:34,120 into the Arctic Ocean and it takes this 442 00:22:42,750 --> 00:22:38,049 is B North Atlantic Scandinavia Russia 443 00:22:46,830 --> 00:22:42,760 Alaska Canada and Greenland so a pulse 444 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:46,840 is in takes 13 years to go around the 445 00:23:00,510 --> 00:22:55,560 so what I did I want to take a look at 446 00:23:03,540 --> 00:23:00,520 this on my cycles they've researched 447 00:23:06,510 --> 00:23:03,550 three cycles this is where they showed 448 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:06,520 up on my cycles rate at the peak the 449 00:23:13,950 --> 00:23:09,810 Northern Hemisphere warm pulse 450 00:23:16,140 --> 00:23:13,960 the first pulse 1990 came in warm pots 451 00:23:17,820 --> 00:23:16,150 of water when didn't in the Arctic 452 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:17,830 that's when he I started to meld up in 453 00:23:24,030 --> 00:23:20,530 the Arctic the ice melts from bottom up 454 00:23:27,120 --> 00:23:24,040 it's all floating ice remember what some 455 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:27,130 80% of the ice is blow water melts 456 00:23:34,470 --> 00:23:30,610 triple bottom up the pulse of 1990 was 457 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:34,480 warm 2008 was warm one in 1999 the 458 00:23:39,710 --> 00:23:36,730 middle pulse was very warm that's what's 459 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:39,720 caused the great belting up there from 460 00:23:48,690 --> 00:23:47,170 1999 up to about 2008 and that's a 461 00:23:50,430 --> 00:23:48,700 signature of the global warming cycles 462 00:23:53,010 --> 00:23:50,440 that very warm pulse but comes in and we 463 00:23:55,020 --> 00:23:53,020 say our ten-year peak in temperatures so 464 00:23:57,570 --> 00:23:55,030 this is what happened 1990 but first 465 00:24:01,500 --> 00:23:57,580 pulse came up around took 13 years to go 466 00:24:03,570 --> 00:24:01,510 up around the Arctic bed but second the 467 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:03,580 warmest pulse came up around and did all 468 00:24:10,590 --> 00:24:05,530 the melting 13 years before it gets 469 00:24:13,380 --> 00:24:10,600 diluted and another one just opened when 470 00:24:15,870 --> 00:24:13,390 didn't be Arctic in 2008 a warm pulse 471 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:15,880 not as warm it's going to take 13 years 472 00:24:21,630 --> 00:24:18,810 it'll be 2021 will be completely gone 473 00:24:24,810 --> 00:24:21,640 2021 actually be pretty much gone maybe 474 00:24:30,390 --> 00:24:24,820 by 2018 so now let's put it all together 475 00:24:33,540 --> 00:24:30,400 on just a couple of slides here what we 476 00:24:34,860 --> 00:24:33,550 have here this is the global warming but 477 00:24:37,550 --> 00:24:34,870 temperatures Earth's temperatures you 478 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:37,560 know to recall the global warming cycles 479 00:24:44,250 --> 00:24:41,410 this is the running mean value of the 480 00:24:48,360 --> 00:24:44,260 lunar solar procession let's see what 481 00:24:52,670 --> 00:24:48,370 happens when the moon lowers in the sky 482 00:24:57,090 --> 00:24:52,680 gets down to the bottom of the cycle in 483 00:25:00,000 --> 00:24:57,100 2075 the first ten years spike in global 484 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:00,010 warming over on the right of the cycle 485 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:03,610 second spike in 1315 you come off the 486 00:25:06,940 --> 00:25:05,690 lunar cycle 487 00:25:09,100 --> 00:25:06,950 look at the temperatures dropped like a 488 00:25:12,129 --> 00:25:09,110 rock global cooling drastic global 489 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:12,139 cooling next cycle moon comes down 490 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:14,690 bottom the cycle first peak and global 491 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:17,090 warming the second peak in global 492 00:25:26,369 --> 00:25:21,250 warming we come off the cycle drastic 493 00:25:34,450 --> 00:25:30,940 1775 come down global warming 1800 comes 494 00:25:37,029 --> 00:25:34,460 off global warming drastic cooling and 495 00:25:39,970 --> 00:25:37,039 I'm gonna talk about this yellow dot 496 00:25:43,450 --> 00:25:39,980 here on the next cycle the year of no 497 00:25:46,990 --> 00:25:43,460 summer I'm the next graphic then our 498 00:25:50,649 --> 00:25:47,000 current cycle 1930 our ten-year pulse 499 00:25:53,230 --> 00:25:50,659 and temperatures ten-year pulse 2008 500 00:25:58,180 --> 00:25:53,240 we're coming off the lunar solar 501 00:26:03,249 --> 00:25:58,190 precession cycle we're gonna be heading 502 00:26:09,129 --> 00:26:03,259 very soon into drastic global cooling my 503 00:26:11,110 --> 00:26:09,139 final slide change on this is applauded 504 00:26:14,919 --> 00:26:11,120 the vei which is the volcanic 505 00:26:17,919 --> 00:26:14,929 explosivity index for volcanoes 506 00:26:22,710 --> 00:26:17,929 coal is up to seven so I plotted five 507 00:26:33,299 --> 00:26:27,549 the yellow ones yellow dots would be be 508 00:26:38,619 --> 00:26:33,309 bei five but white is six and seven and 509 00:26:40,629 --> 00:26:38,629 kind of what you see is back up here you 510 00:26:42,580 --> 00:26:40,639 you don't really see much except as more 511 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:42,590 in the past four or five hundred years 512 00:26:45,340 --> 00:26:44,210 and some of that's because observations 513 00:26:48,149 --> 00:26:45,350 are better way or more people on earth 514 00:26:50,590 --> 00:26:48,159 and we know the power of what happened 515 00:26:54,009 --> 00:26:50,600 but we want what we want to do is take a 516 00:26:56,830 --> 00:26:54,019 closer look at this we want to see what 517 00:26:58,419 --> 00:26:56,840 happens about the first 20 years of the 518 00:27:00,639 --> 00:26:58,429 drastic global cooling when you head 519 00:27:04,779 --> 00:27:00,649 into global cooling so we're gonna box 520 00:27:08,409 --> 00:27:04,789 this off when we go into global cooling 521 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:08,419 now the rest of the volcanoes are more 522 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:11,210 in the deep part of the global cooling 523 00:27:16,869 --> 00:27:13,490 but we want to look at the first 20 524 00:27:18,879 --> 00:27:16,879 years see what's going on because we're 525 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:18,889 coming up to that so what we're going to 526 00:27:21,010 --> 00:27:19,490 do is Bach 527 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:21,020 off ones we don't want and take him out 528 00:27:27,610 --> 00:27:24,410 of there now we're we're at the global 529 00:27:31,330 --> 00:27:27,620 cooling cycles and what happens the 530 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:31,340 first 20 years for for volcanic activity 531 00:27:39,299 --> 00:27:35,690 as we can see there's a nice white dot 532 00:27:41,950 --> 00:27:39,309 nice white dot and volcanoes here but a 533 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:41,960 four volcanoes here and I don't have it 534 00:27:47,799 --> 00:27:44,210 plotted on here but there's a big white 535 00:27:49,630 --> 00:27:47,809 dot around 950 - a very famous volcano 536 00:27:54,360 --> 00:27:49,640 about 20 years after global cooling 537 00:27:58,090 --> 00:27:54,370 began these are years and those summer 538 00:28:02,110 --> 00:27:58,100 now let's see where this occurs on our 539 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:02,120 graphic this is our first 20-30 years 540 00:28:08,799 --> 00:28:04,010 ago but cooling and misses where occurs 541 00:28:10,810 --> 00:28:08,809 on the lunar solar cycle the next one 542 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:10,820 you can see it's pretty much the same 543 00:28:19,360 --> 00:28:15,050 point on the cycle same point on the 544 00:28:22,150 --> 00:28:19,370 cycle same point on the cycle and here 545 00:28:27,130 --> 00:28:22,160 we are now this is what we're heading 546 00:28:29,380 --> 00:28:27,140 into this is my forecast dramatic global 547 00:28:34,210 --> 00:28:29,390 cooling with at least three volcanoes 548 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:34,220 coming up before 2030 and one of them 549 00:28:40,230 --> 00:28:37,490 very likely being a seven on the scale 550 00:28:46,060 --> 00:28:40,240 and a high risk of a year of no summer 551 00:28:47,460 --> 00:28:46,070 back in the year of no summer in 1815 552 00:28:54,130 --> 00:28:47,470 right here 553 00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:54,140 that was tambora a seven in 1815 that 554 00:29:02,710 --> 00:28:57,290 was in Indonesia in 1816 a year no 555 00:29:06,250 --> 00:29:02,720 summer New England lost 75% of their 556 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:06,260 corn crop killing Frost every month 557 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:08,330 month of the summer all the way down to 558 00:29:16,180 --> 00:29:12,490 Virginia Ison small ponds and streams in 559 00:29:21,820 --> 00:29:16,190 northern Pennsylvania that's in middle 560 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:21,830 of the summer Europe potato cropped 561 00:29:29,380 --> 00:29:25,970 losses and I believe the estimate was at 562 00:29:32,580 --> 00:29:29,390 1/4 of Europe perished during the next 563 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:32,590 several years through 564 00:29:41,230 --> 00:29:37,570 disease lack of food and civil unrest 565 00:29:46,620 --> 00:29:41,240 northern China lost most of a rice crop 566 00:29:50,710 --> 00:29:46,630 and this is what is heading up for us 567 00:29:52,950 --> 00:29:50,720 very soon and there's a gentleman I've 568 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:52,960 been doing some joint talks with he's 569 00:30:01,360 --> 00:29:55,850 John Casey he wrote the book cold Sun he 570 00:30:02,950 --> 00:30:01,370 uses sunspots and they just started 571 00:30:06,570 --> 00:30:02,960 corporation called the International 572 00:30:09,910 --> 00:30:06,580 earthquake and volcano prediction center 573 00:30:13,500 --> 00:30:09,920 what they're doing is monitoring three 574 00:30:16,980 --> 00:30:13,510 very big volcanic vents around the globe 575 00:30:19,780 --> 00:30:16,990 any one of the three are ready to blow 576 00:30:22,740 --> 00:30:19,790 any one of the three have a potential as 577 00:30:25,210 --> 00:30:22,750 being as big as Tambora in 1815 578 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:25,220 now volcanoes aren't usually a huge 579 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:27,650 problem until you put it in conjunction 580 00:30:32,620 --> 00:30:31,370 with extreme rapid global cooling when 581 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:32,630 you get the combination of the two 582 00:30:39,070 --> 00:30:36,170 you're in for trouble with that note 583 00:30:41,510 --> 00:30:39,080 I'll end it right here and we can take 584 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,970 [Applause] 585 00:30:47,910 --> 00:30:46,830 thank you David as before what we're 586 00:30:49,740 --> 00:30:47,920 gonna do is we're gonna put the 587 00:31:03,930 --> 00:30:49,750 microphone here and you can line up and 588 00:31:08,490 --> 00:31:03,940 ask questions of David David thanks I'm 589 00:31:12,470 --> 00:31:08,500 Chuck clear yes Chuck about five years 590 00:31:17,510 --> 00:31:12,480 ago the International panel on climate 591 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:17,520 control issue the cautious statement 592 00:31:28,230 --> 00:31:22,170 that there was about a 15% probability 593 00:31:31,110 --> 00:31:28,240 that global warming was human caused can 594 00:31:34,020 --> 00:31:31,120 you comment on that assessment they said 595 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:34,030 a 15 percent chance or 95 I think it was 596 00:31:42,770 --> 00:31:37,810 15 percent I think it was 95 quite low 597 00:31:47,130 --> 00:31:42,780 as I recall I if I didn't hear that one 598 00:31:49,470 --> 00:31:47,140 what I did hear about three four or five 599 00:31:50,940 --> 00:31:49,480 years ago was their forecast wasn't 600 00:31:52,950 --> 00:31:50,950 really working out for temperatures to 601 00:31:54,510 --> 00:31:52,960 continue increasing stead they the 602 00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:54,520 leveled off there in past ten years 603 00:32:00,120 --> 00:31:57,610 so they revised their forecast and said 604 00:32:02,490 --> 00:32:00,130 well we now see some natural cycles so 605 00:32:03,750 --> 00:32:02,500 what we're going to do is we're going to 606 00:32:06,750 --> 00:32:03,760 keep the temperatures steady for the 607 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:06,760 next 10 years and then rapid global 608 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:08,650 warming what they did was buy time for 609 00:32:14,300 --> 00:32:12,370 ten years they just recognized the cycle 610 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:14,310 for only ten years we're going into a 611 00:32:20,190 --> 00:32:18,730 200 year cycle not a ten year cycle so I 612 00:32:21,900 --> 00:32:20,200 didn't hear your forecast the only 613 00:32:26,390 --> 00:32:21,910 forecast I've been hearing is ninety 614 00:32:32,250 --> 00:32:28,830 fascinating presentation thank you I'm 615 00:32:34,590 --> 00:32:32,260 Bob wood you alluded briefly to some 616 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:34,600 work on sunspot correlation I wonder if 617 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:38,290 you could elaborate on who that is well 618 00:32:44,910 --> 00:32:39,970 that was John Casey author of the book 619 00:32:49,580 --> 00:32:44,920 cold Sun he used to work for I believe 620 00:32:52,620 --> 00:32:49,590 it was NASA many scientists around the 621 00:32:55,290 --> 00:32:52,630 world including NASA know but we're 622 00:32:57,660 --> 00:32:55,300 going to a Monda mini minimum in sunspot 623 00:32:58,560 --> 00:32:57,670 activity which means the Sun is going to 624 00:33:02,250 --> 00:32:58,570 be a little bit cold 625 00:33:06,330 --> 00:33:02,260 which means cooler temperatures global 626 00:33:09,270 --> 00:33:06,340 cooling well he approached the forecast 627 00:33:11,910 --> 00:33:09,280 with the sunspot activity I approached 628 00:33:14,460 --> 00:33:11,920 it with the gravitational aspect of it 629 00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:14,470 which would also have interruptions in 630 00:33:19,550 --> 00:33:16,290 the electromagnetic field 631 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:19,560 so although we used a little bit 632 00:33:24,540 --> 00:33:22,210 different techniques to get our forecast 633 00:33:27,510 --> 00:33:24,550 we came to the same conclusion we came 634 00:33:30,450 --> 00:33:27,520 to just about almost the exact date of 635 00:33:33,630 --> 00:33:30,460 going into global cooling and I'm not 636 00:33:36,210 --> 00:33:33,640 the only one I've known miss since 2007 637 00:33:37,770 --> 00:33:36,220 when I put out my first ebook but I was 638 00:33:39,570 --> 00:33:37,780 afraid to speak up much about it because 639 00:33:41,730 --> 00:33:39,580 I wasn't the only one talking about it 640 00:33:43,770 --> 00:33:41,740 so I was quiet than that when I met up 641 00:33:45,510 --> 00:33:43,780 with John Casey this past winter and we 642 00:33:48,540 --> 00:33:45,520 did joint talks now I'm coming out and 643 00:33:49,950 --> 00:33:48,550 talking about the volcanoes and and the 644 00:33:51,270 --> 00:33:49,960 drastic global cooling them it's coming 645 00:33:55,620 --> 00:33:51,280 because a lot of people are on the same 646 00:33:58,830 --> 00:33:55,630 page ritual we have you here the 647 00:34:01,370 --> 00:33:58,840 opportunity to plot polar reversals in 648 00:34:04,410 --> 00:34:01,380 relation to these cycles no I have not 649 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:04,420 it'd be fascinating to do it I'd love to 650 00:34:09,090 --> 00:34:06,490 do it if you can get me information I 651 00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:09,100 certainly will take no time at all I 652 00:34:16,740 --> 00:34:14,530 have the model this model or what I'm 653 00:34:20,220 --> 00:34:16,750 showing you on the cycles I've spun off 654 00:34:24,030 --> 00:34:20,230 many forecast models on this I the El 655 00:34:29,070 --> 00:34:24,040 Nino correlates to it I used it for 656 00:34:31,230 --> 00:34:29,080 hurricane forecasting and and just 657 00:34:34,740 --> 00:34:31,240 recently in past year I started I did a 658 00:34:36,870 --> 00:34:34,750 model for California earthquakes I can 659 00:34:38,669 --> 00:34:36,880 track be california earthquakes for the 660 00:34:41,070 --> 00:34:38,679 past 200 years right up through my 661 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:41,080 models and on my website you could go to 662 00:34:46,620 --> 00:34:43,450 my website I have a California forecasts 663 00:34:48,810 --> 00:34:46,630 on there free of charge I go to the 664 00:34:51,720 --> 00:34:48,820 earthquake section my forecast for the 665 00:34:56,070 --> 00:34:51,730 big one coming up you're about a year 666 00:34:58,170 --> 00:34:56,080 from this winter that's that's the the 667 00:34:59,610 --> 00:34:58,180 biggest part the strongest part of a 668 00:35:01,500 --> 00:34:59,620 window we're going into the window now 669 00:35:03,230 --> 00:35:01,510 for the strong earthquake but it's going 670 00:35:09,510 --> 00:35:03,240 to be somewhere between December and 671 00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:09,520 February of 2013 14 could you elucidate 672 00:35:14,550 --> 00:35:10,810 a bit more on 673 00:35:18,660 --> 00:35:14,560 the dire effects presumed dire effects 674 00:35:23,790 --> 00:35:18,670 of cooling plus earthquake or volcanic 675 00:35:26,730 --> 00:35:23,800 eruption well well fix our first of all 676 00:35:29,310 --> 00:35:26,740 we know we're gonna have probably three 677 00:35:32,610 --> 00:35:29,320 big well you said earthquakes not 678 00:35:35,430 --> 00:35:32,620 volcanoes right volcanoes we know we're 679 00:35:37,710 --> 00:35:35,440 gonna have probably three big volcanoes 680 00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:37,720 coming up prior to 2030 because they're 681 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:40,090 already monitoring three vents but it 682 00:35:50,900 --> 00:35:43,450 ready to go what happens on a volcano 683 00:35:55,980 --> 00:35:53,880 the volcano and checks a lot of sulfur 684 00:35:59,520 --> 00:35:55,990 into the upper atmosphere it's the 685 00:36:01,800 --> 00:35:59,530 sulfur gets up in yet upper atmosphere 686 00:36:05,730 --> 00:36:01,810 mixes water and makes sulfates sulfates 687 00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:05,740 is highly reflective so the incoming 688 00:36:12,530 --> 00:36:08,170 solar radiation is reflected back to 689 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:12,540 space and this is why you're 1816 after 690 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:17,410 the volcano was such a cold year because 691 00:36:24,420 --> 00:36:19,330 of people reflectivity of the solar 692 00:36:26,190 --> 00:36:24,430 irradiation and this that's what we're 693 00:36:28,980 --> 00:36:26,200 looking at and it's the combination of 694 00:36:30,570 --> 00:36:28,990 when you have your first twenty years of 695 00:36:33,630 --> 00:36:30,580 global cooling your cooling off so 696 00:36:35,550 --> 00:36:33,640 rapidly and you get a joke with a huge 697 00:36:38,810 --> 00:36:35,560 volcano on top of it and you just jolt 698 00:36:44,460 --> 00:36:42,420 out and I should point out you can have 699 00:36:47,940 --> 00:36:44,470 very strong volcanoes outside of the 700 00:36:49,500 --> 00:36:47,950 global cooling the rapid one and it you 701 00:36:54,330 --> 00:36:49,510 don't have the same effects because you 702 00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:54,340 don't have the combination yes sir my 703 00:36:57,870 --> 00:36:55,930 name is Lou Marin kovitch I'm a 704 00:37:00,420 --> 00:36:57,880 geologist and I thought I'd mentioned 705 00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:00,430 that Milankovitch cycles as you know are 706 00:37:06,870 --> 00:37:04,210 recorded in ocean sediments and my 707 00:37:11,730 --> 00:37:06,880 friends who study modern sedimentation 708 00:37:15,330 --> 00:37:11,740 say that the Milankovitch cycle is in a 709 00:37:17,230 --> 00:37:15,340 where it's going into a cooling phase so 710 00:37:20,180 --> 00:37:17,240 it verifies your 711 00:37:21,940 --> 00:37:20,190 well we definitely definitely are going 712 00:37:24,170 --> 00:37:21,950 into cooling phase one thing is work 713 00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:24,180 7,000 years ago we were a peek at this 714 00:37:29,329 --> 00:37:26,970 into glacial period when we had 50% less 715 00:37:30,740 --> 00:37:29,339 ice in the Arctic that was our the peak 716 00:37:32,289 --> 00:37:30,750 of a warm period we're actually starting 717 00:37:35,029 --> 00:37:32,299 to cool off towards the next ice age 718 00:37:37,670 --> 00:37:35,039 although that's 3040 thousand years away 719 00:37:39,529 --> 00:37:37,680 but each global warming cycle started 720 00:37:42,049 --> 00:37:39,539 getting cool cool and cooler and and 721 00:37:43,970 --> 00:37:42,059 maybe maybe we should pray that carbon 722 00:37:55,140 --> 00:37:43,980 dioxide causes warming because we will 723 00:38:00,930 --> 00:37:58,300 some of these volcanoes go off they 724 00:38:05,290 --> 00:38:00,940 bumped the earth a little that changed 725 00:38:12,550 --> 00:38:05,300 the orbit of the earth somewhat and what 726 00:38:14,890 --> 00:38:12,560 kind of I don't know as if it if it 727 00:38:17,710 --> 00:38:14,900 bumps the earth which it may like I said 728 00:38:19,030 --> 00:38:17,720 very slight slight it would come right 729 00:38:20,970 --> 00:38:19,040 back anyway 730 00:38:26,830 --> 00:38:20,980 but they can probably detect a slight 731 00:38:29,230 --> 00:38:26,840 quiver that would not have a change at 732 00:38:31,150 --> 00:38:29,240 all because any any change in the accent 733 00:38:34,900 --> 00:38:31,160 axis would have been very very very 734 00:38:38,410 --> 00:38:34,910 slight so we're talking about twenty 735 00:38:40,990 --> 00:38:38,420 three thousand year cycle or the tilde B 736 00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:41,000 earth changes from what twenty-three and 737 00:38:46,300 --> 00:38:43,970 a half degrees down to about twenty one 738 00:38:49,810 --> 00:38:46,310 degrees somewhere around there a 739 00:38:51,370 --> 00:38:49,820 twenty-three thousand year cycle and you 740 00:38:54,340 --> 00:38:51,380 know that's a change of about three 741 00:38:56,830 --> 00:38:54,350 degrees and if you get a minor change 742 00:39:02,520 --> 00:38:56,840 it's just a fraction of the hundredth of 743 00:39:10,210 --> 00:39:08,470 I'm sure it would I'm sure I don't have 744 00:39:12,490 --> 00:39:10,220 the concrete answer for you on that but 745 00:39:19,220 --> 00:39:12,500 I would does I would have to assume it